Apr 2nd, 2020 | Guest Interviews

GUSTAVO ARELLANO Longtime Leykis regular guest, Los Angeles Times reporter Gustavo Arellano, returns to talk about everything that's going on in our quarantined world right now as well as everything that's happened in his life since bolting from his previous gig as Editor of OC Weekly.

Visit Gustavo's website and sign up for his newsletter.

Let Tom know what you think: tom@blowmeuptom.com.



Submitted by TallTim on

Naturally the discussion about the pandemic somehow mutated into politics and the like.

I'm a trader by profession, so when I hear things like "Biden could make it" I have to check my sources to see if that fits.

The prediction markets I follow paint a different story. Biden is trailing, and doesn't have a lead. Its gotten so bad that there were rumors of getting Cuomo in there. When asked, he said point blank "no" about running for president. So much for that theory.

We're not going to get a "V" recovery from this. The longer this goes on, the weaker the economy gets. The Fed can't print to infinity without consequences.

Think a postponed election is a problem? Try broken supply chains, no trucks delivering food. Deflationary forces take hold and things collapse. That is what we're facing. There's also a probability of hyperinflation once foreign demand for dollars subsides, which it can.

And yet we're obsessed about the election during this crisis. Priorities are all out of whack.

Take care, is all I can say -- if you haven't prepared you're not going to weather it. I hope many of you have.

Submitted by TallTim on

...you're making the same mistake the Team Red radio hosts did when they covered the Affordable Healthcare Act, over and over. As you've said before, its your show, your rules -- you can focus on Trump until the cows come home if you want to. I just see both sides here, and it just makes you look just as fixated as the other side was. I find the entire thing entertaining -- I do love your outlook on different subjects, but I feel compelled to point it out because it seems you can't see it. As for the link you provided -- That isn't what I'm talking about. [DELETED. SOURCE MUST BE CITED.] I shift with how the market shifts. If Team Blue pulls it out then I'll adjust my bets accordingly. I'm apolitical because I make my money by not being blinkered into a given domain of thought and belief. As for mishandling, we're talking large govt agencies. It took FEMA three days to give people in the Katrina disaster water. I have very LOW expectations of this govt, and other world govts. The plain fact is, when you get to a certain level of complexity and scale -- its impossible to expect rapid action in evolving circumstances. Most of the time they miss the mark. That doesn't surprise me in the least. That's one of the reasons I tend to be prepared for events like this, as any govt response is likely to be much too late, too little, or both. Take care Tom, its only going to get more interesting from here.

Submitted by TomLeykisNNN on

...please don't cite anonymous polls from unknown sources here. You're doing exactly what your boy Trump complains about. I am deleting that part of your message. You can edit and repost once we have the specific source of your mysterious "contracts".

Submitted by TallTim on

There's more than one prediction market available, so sure -- here's one (Not open to US Residents due to certain financial regs):

https://ftx.com/trade/BIDEN and the other contract https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMP

Again, there are many markets such as these. They aren't "polls" but actual futures contracts that require people to put their money on which contract will succeed.

I understand you wouldn't like outside polls or whatnot -- but I'm not citing that at all. There is a whole world of contracts out there, on outside exchanges -- some exist on the darkweb as well, but I don't participate in those.

Again Tom -- I'm not for Team Blue or Team Red. I'm about making money, so I maintain a balanced view.

Submitted by lionking36 on

Hey Gustavo,
That thing you wanted to say about the POTUS but didn't, was it...
Just wondering,
A fan