Mar 16th, 2020 | In the News

CORONAVIRUS: HOW LONG WILL THIS GO ON? What have we learned so far? How are US authorities handling this worldwide crisis? Are we really prepared for what might really happen? Many who miss Tom's live show have been asking for his takes, and here they are.

Tom mentioned this book during this episode.

Tom wants to know your takes on coronavirus:



Submitted by Teacher Kenn on

Great advice as always Tom. I do not know if I am allowed to post other broadcasters that seem to have a good grasp of this current corona virus. If not, I will take them down.

Peak Prosperity has always been good on this issue.

I am an expat living in Thailand, and seeing as China is in my backdoor, I have kept a close eye on this issue. I even brought this up in my biology classes to bring this issue to my students. I have taken the advice of those like you Tom. Unfortunately even here in Thailand many do not take this issue seriously. Mostly other expats laugh this off and say it is just a regular flu.

However, at least hand sanitizer is everywhere, restaurants, stores, fast food, bars, schools, public places etc. The schools are already on their 2 month break, we might be post-ponned at the start of the next school year.. I think I would rather wait this issue out while in Thailand, vs being in the States.

Submitted by altmrrelaxed on

How will we know that the spread of the coronavirus has gone too far? Would that point be when they unlock the jails and prisons and let the inmates out?

Submitted by TallTim on

Glad you're doing well Tom, but there's no avoiding this.

Exponential spread guarantees that even the most remote areas will eventually get hit. It just takes one. One person, one coughing out the window of a car drive-by leaving particulates wafting in the air. Unless you have a HEPA-grade filter and have sealed up your ranch like a submarine, its coming eventually.

Lets say you duck the initial wave. Good for you, now get ready for the next wave coming. Are you going to stay inside for a year? Because that is what it would take.

You're ahead most people in terms of supplies, but otherwise, you're as vulnerable as the rest of us.

Submitted by TallTim on

My prediction:

USA population - 327 Million (2018)

Current global mortality rate: 3.8%

USA potential deaths: 12,426,000

And that's if it doesn't mutate into something even more lethal.

Submitted by mjillson on

With all the shit going on, and the world imploding ... It's really nice to hear Tom Leykis, whether it's new episodes or old WOP's. Stay safe everyone!

Submitted by Faithful LIstener on

One interesting development: the people, in the age of the Internet, are well ahead of the government in fashioning a response to the coronavirus. The example of Italy - people over 80 are told to go home, one report said people over 60 are told to go home - means you can not take this too seriously. Too many people refuse to take it seriously, and they will force a price on the rest of us, if we let them. One thought the politicians overlooked, for example - close the schools, and someone has to stay home with the kids during the day. How many nurses are mothers, and just got taken out of the pool of medical assistance? This is bad, much worse than we were told, and will force some dramatic changes in society. For instance, no one wants to bail out airlines that spent a fortune on stock buybacks. No one wants to bail out any one. This response, a response to the cavalier treatment the taxpayers received in 2008 with the bail-outs of billionaires, is just for starters. How's that stock market doing now, and what will be the effect of $30 a barrel oil on the derivatives, and the banks that are counterparties? Just as the Federal Reserve runs out of ammo, and the Fed put is gone, this might ultimately mean an end to the dollar as the world reserve currency. The middle class - what's left of it - has a lot to worry about. This is worthy of several shows, Tom, particularly if the Dow Jones keeps diving. OTOH, at 20% declines a day.... Money on a 10,000 DOW? And, the effect on pensions is simply terrifying. This could lead to an existential crisis of confidence not seen since the Thirties. Keep posting, Tom!

Submitted by TallTim on

You're right the Fed is out of options. All they have left is more QE, which they're doing, and another cut all the way to zero - which they're practically there anyway.

One thing that no one seems to be talking about is how a lot of small businesses won't be coming back after this.

If you're in the bar/restaurant biz, you have workers that can't afford to take one day off, much less two weeks or a month. Those people aren't going to be sitting around waiting for their employer to come back. They can't afford to. Some will try to apply for unemployment, but unless they're in cities where bars and such were explicitly told to shut down, you can't get any.

Thing is, I see this as a large displacement of lower-paid workers that has to go somewhere. A lot of it will go on the dole, public assistance programs and the like. Few of these shut down establishments will be able to weather this and come back. People may be surprised that "getting back to normal" isn't going to happen as fast as they think it will.

But they all clamored to shut 'em down, though -- but there will be future consequences to this.

Submitted by Faithful LIstener on

I think the list of economic changes that will come out on the other side of this - a year from now - will make the economic shift from pre- Great Depresssion to the beginning of WWII look like a mere reflection of what is to come. The Internet has disintermediated an awful lot of jobs, and many people do not realize that what they were told is a "career" is a series of jobs, each easily obsoleted under the new system. All of these trends, artificial intelligence, for example - will be accelerated dramatically.

With death estimates of one million, mostly among the elderly, in only one year, and the wealth effect of a 30K stock market going to a 15K stock market - on the way to what? - you will see demographic shifts that take decades to unfold take place in a year.

I am not sanguine as the nature of the economy on the other side. What kind of pensions can be paid on a 15K - or worse! - stock market? How much demand is destroyed in this case alone? How will that ripple through the economy? The standard of living for all save the most elite will drop precipitously, and the average standard of living will be based on a no debt lifestyle. When will the cascading cross-defaults come to an end? Yes, banks will go under, and restructuring will only mask this up to a point. I am not sanguine.

You can bet the social science types at RAND Corporation, the Heritage Foundation, and other think tanks, are seeing an opportunity for a lot of economic (and social) reforms to take effect overnight.

"You CAN make a loaf of bread for as little as a quarter," and you had better get used to that.

If you are lucky.

Two predictions: a new, faster Internet, more available to more people, and a truly permanent, growing underclass.